جغرافي2000
02/12/2010, 06:43 PM
السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
والصلاة والسلام على سيدنا محمد بن عبدالله وعلى آله وصحبه أجمعين
صدر أخيراً من مركز التنبؤات الجوية الاسترالي تقرير يفيد ببداية ضعف في ظاهرة اللا نينا وتشير معظم النماذج الحاسوبيه إلى أحتمال ضعف هذه الظاهرة بشكل كبير خلال الاشهر القادمة وهذا إن شاء الله قد يكون بداية تغيير في الحالة الجوية السائدة.
(مسموح نقل الموضوع لأي منتدى)
أترككم مع التقرير:
Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions from December 2010
As detailed in the ENSO Wrap-up (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso), La Niña conditions have weakened slightly but remain firm across the tropical Pacific.
Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest central Pacific Ocean (NINO3.4) sea surface temperatures are likely to remain at levels typical of a La Niña event into the first quarter of 2011, with the majority of the models indicating the event will gradually weaken over the coming months.
The NCEP model predicts NINO3.4 will cool further, with NINO3.4 peaking at its coolest temperature in March. The Japanese Met Agency and NASA models predict a faster decay of the La Niña conditions. Most models, with NCEP being the only exception, predict the central Pacific will warm during the first quarter of 2011.
The Bureau's POAMA model (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml) suggests that central Pacific Ocean temperatures will start to warm in coming months, with all thirty POAMA forecasts favouring a gradual weakening of La Niña conditions. However, despite a gradual weakening, POAMA predicts that the central Pacific Ocean will remain at temperatures typical of a La Niña event until at least the end of February 2011.
Model Outlooks
The following table summarises the opinion of National Climate Centre climatologists regarding the outputs from various long range forecast models. The model set contains eight reputable ocean or coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models that take into account complex physical ocean processes. NCC's interpretation may not necessarily be the same as the organisations producing the model output. You are therefore encouraged to follow the hyperlinks to the various institutions listed in the table.
وهذا رابط مقال لمن يرغب في الاستفادة يتحدث عن هذه آثار هذه الظاهرة بشكل أكبر
http://www.climatecentre.org/downloa...0Update_4_.pdf (http://www.climatecentre.org/downloa...0Update_4_.pdf)
والله أعلم
أتمنى من خبرائنا الكراااااام أن يوفوا الموضوع حقه من صحته أو من عدمه
والصلاة والسلام على سيدنا محمد بن عبدالله وعلى آله وصحبه أجمعين
صدر أخيراً من مركز التنبؤات الجوية الاسترالي تقرير يفيد ببداية ضعف في ظاهرة اللا نينا وتشير معظم النماذج الحاسوبيه إلى أحتمال ضعف هذه الظاهرة بشكل كبير خلال الاشهر القادمة وهذا إن شاء الله قد يكون بداية تغيير في الحالة الجوية السائدة.
(مسموح نقل الموضوع لأي منتدى)
أترككم مع التقرير:
Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions from December 2010
As detailed in the ENSO Wrap-up (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso), La Niña conditions have weakened slightly but remain firm across the tropical Pacific.
Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest central Pacific Ocean (NINO3.4) sea surface temperatures are likely to remain at levels typical of a La Niña event into the first quarter of 2011, with the majority of the models indicating the event will gradually weaken over the coming months.
The NCEP model predicts NINO3.4 will cool further, with NINO3.4 peaking at its coolest temperature in March. The Japanese Met Agency and NASA models predict a faster decay of the La Niña conditions. Most models, with NCEP being the only exception, predict the central Pacific will warm during the first quarter of 2011.
The Bureau's POAMA model (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml) suggests that central Pacific Ocean temperatures will start to warm in coming months, with all thirty POAMA forecasts favouring a gradual weakening of La Niña conditions. However, despite a gradual weakening, POAMA predicts that the central Pacific Ocean will remain at temperatures typical of a La Niña event until at least the end of February 2011.
Model Outlooks
The following table summarises the opinion of National Climate Centre climatologists regarding the outputs from various long range forecast models. The model set contains eight reputable ocean or coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models that take into account complex physical ocean processes. NCC's interpretation may not necessarily be the same as the organisations producing the model output. You are therefore encouraged to follow the hyperlinks to the various institutions listed in the table.
وهذا رابط مقال لمن يرغب في الاستفادة يتحدث عن هذه آثار هذه الظاهرة بشكل أكبر
http://www.climatecentre.org/downloa...0Update_4_.pdf (http://www.climatecentre.org/downloa...0Update_4_.pdf)
والله أعلم
أتمنى من خبرائنا الكراااااام أن يوفوا الموضوع حقه من صحته أو من عدمه